TY  - JOUR
T1  - Mosquito Control under a Hotter and Less Predictable Climate Requires Seasonal Foresight, Resistance Planning, and Intervention Redundancy
A1  - Peter Otieno
A1  - Grace Atieno
A1  - Felix Okoth
A1  - Thomas Müller
JF  - Entomology and Applied Science Letters
JO  - Entomol Appl Sci Lett
SN  - 2349-2864
Y1  - 2026
VL  - 13
IS  - 2
DO  - 10.51847/DI5N2YvyvJ
SP  - 78
EP  - 87
N2  - Climate change is altering the environmental conditions in which mosquito-control programmes must anticipate vector emergence, select interventions, interpret resistance, and maintain protection across increasingly variable seasons. The central problem is not simply that warmer conditions increase mosquito abundance or control failure, but that shifting temperature, rainfall, extreme-weather patterns, land use, and human exposure can destabilize previously reliable relations among mosquito phenology, transmission risk, intervention timing, and insecticide performance. This article develops an original, evidence-grounded conceptual synthesis for climate-resilient mosquito control. It integrates climate-driven instability, nonlinear mosquito population dynamics, temperature-dependent insecticide responses, seasonal mismatch, resistance planning, and the complementary roles of redundancy, flexibility, and contingency planning. The synthesis indicates that climatic change can expand, contract, redistribute, or fragment periods of vector and transmission suitability, while the effectiveness of control remains conditional on species, life stage, local habitat, resistance mechanism, intervention type, delivery quality, and operational capacity. Seasonal forecasts can improve preparedness, but they do not provide inherently reliable local deployment dates. Similarly, redundant control options can preserve critical functions when one intervention becomes poorly timed, resisted, unavailable, or operationally compromised, but redundancy must represent mechanistic and logistical complementarity rather than unnecessary duplication. Important limitations include incomplete local validation of climate models, weak integration between entomological and operational surveillance, inconsistent reporting of thermal conditions in insecticide assays, and limited prospective evaluation of adaptive intervention portfolios. Climate resilience should therefore be treated as a proposed, revisable decision architecture that links probabilistic foresight to observed mosquito conditions, resistance evidence, predefined alternatives, accountable decision rules, and multi-season validation rather than as a fixed or deployment-ready programme.
UR  - https://easletters.com/article/mosquito-control-under-a-hotter-and-less-predictable-climate-requires-seasonal-foresight-resistance-ivz7pscmrrlkf2c
ER  -